Vegas Line
UConn -21.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
CONN -18.0
CONN 94.1% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: LAF
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- CONN -8.8
- CONN: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jason Candle — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.4 pts.
Lafayette — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
UConn ranks #51 nationally allowing 145.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #34 run defense.
2Contain Kalieb Osborne
UConn's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Lafayette has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Lafayette is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UConn sits at -2.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Lafayette on the winning side of an even split.
UConn — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
UConn is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Lafayette sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts UConn on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 265
- Completion %
- 73.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 176.4
Leading Rusher
Kalieb OsborneCONN · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 11.3
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 30
Primary Receiver
Javon BrownCONN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 15.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 29
Defensive Leader
Jalil MartinCONN · DB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CONN by 18.0
Baseline CONN -18.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
CONN QB
CONN FBS average · LAF Below average
LAF passing vs CONN coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 145.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.8% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.332 |
LAF rushing vs CONN run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 64.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.1 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 50.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.185 |
CONN passing vs LAF coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 370.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 75.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.50:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.597 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 671.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 209.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.