Week 1 · Final
0 – 57
Vegas Line
South Carolina -35.5
Total 53.5
Model Projection
SC -32.0
SC 99.3% win · O/U 53.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: KENT
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.9 pts toward SC on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- SC -9.8
- SC: 6 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 62%, incoming portal talent +0.5 pts.
- KENT: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.2 pts.
Kent State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
South Carolina ranks #59 nationally allowing 100.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #10 pass defense.
2Contain Jabree Coleman
South Carolina's top producer this season: 77 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Kent State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kent State converts 35.7% of third downs (#97 nationally) versus South Carolina's 87.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Kent State is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Carolina sits at +1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts Kent State on the winning side of an even split.
South Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Kent State ranks #131 nationally allowing 278.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #131 pass defense.
2Contain Dru Deshields
Kent State's top producer this season: 27 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing South Carolina has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
South Carolina converts 87.5% of third downs (#1 nationally) versus Kent State's 35.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
South Carolina is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kent State sits at -1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts South Carolina on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dru DeshieldsKENT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 63
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 3.1
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 86.5
Lanorris SellersSC · QB
- Passing Yds
- 270
- Completion %
- 82.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.7
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 224.3
Leading Rusher
Dru DeshieldsKENT · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 27
- Carries
- 3
- Yards / Carry
- 9.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 26
Jabree ColemanSC · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 77
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 19.3
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 60
Primary Receiver
Mason BlakemoreKENT · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 10.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Donovan MurphSC · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 92
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 23.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Atiq MuhammadKENT · DB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Judge CollierSC · DB
- Tackles
- 4
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SC by 32.0
Baseline SC -32.0
Simulated Total
53.5
Baseline 53.5
Unit Edge
SC QB
SC Above average · KENT Below average
KENT passing vs SC coverage
| 79.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 79.0 |
| 60.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.4 |
| 3.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 60.9% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.3% |
| 0.030 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.030 |
KENT rushing vs SC run defense
| 100.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 100.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 2.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.0% |
| 20.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.140 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.140 |
SC passing vs KENT coverage
| 367.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 367.0 |
| 11.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 81.8% |
| 81.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.1 |
| 3.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.784 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.784 |
Efficiency & situational
| 35.7% | Third-down conversion | 87.5% |
| 179.0 | Total yards / game | 645.0 |
| 645.0 | Yards allowed / game | 179.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.