Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
OSU -29.5
OSU 99.0% win · O/U 56.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.4 pts toward OSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OSU -16.2
- OSU: 10 portal additions / 10 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 36%, incoming portal talent +0.9 pts.
- KENT: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.2 pts.
Kent State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ohio State ranks #37 nationally allowing 120.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #18 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Kent State converts 35.7% of third downs (#97 nationally) versus Ohio State's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Kent State is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio State sits at +0.
4Move the ball efficiently
Kent State averages 179.0 total yards per game (#129 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Ohio State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Kent State ranks #131 nationally allowing 278.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #131 pass defense.
2Contain Dru Deshields
Kent State's top producer this season: 27 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Ohio State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Ohio State converts 45.5% of third downs (#62 nationally) versus Kent State's 35.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Ohio State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kent State sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Ohio State averages 671.0 total yards per game (#3 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dru DeshieldsKENT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 63
- Completion %
- 60.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 3.1
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 86.5
Leading Rusher
Dru DeshieldsKENT · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 27
- Carries
- 3
- Yards / Carry
- 9.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 26
Primary Receiver
Mason BlakemoreKENT · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 21
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 10.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Defensive Leader
Atiq MuhammadKENT · DB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OSU by 29.6
Baseline OSU -29.5
Simulated Total
56.8
Baseline 56.8
Unit Edge
OSU QB
OSU Top 25 level · KENT Below average
KENT passing vs OSU coverage
| 79.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 120.0 |
| 60.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 54.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.7% |
| 0.030 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.265 |
KENT rushing vs OSU run defense
| 100.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 45.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 2.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 20.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.140 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.110 |
OSU passing vs KENT coverage
| 367.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 434.0 |
| 11.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 83.8% |
| 81.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.7 |
| 3.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.784 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.861 |
Efficiency & situational
| 35.7% | Third-down conversion | 45.5% |
| 179.0 | Total yards / game | 671.0 |
| 645.0 | Yards allowed / game | 165.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.