Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TENN -21.5
TENN 96.4% win · O/U 45.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.1 pts toward TENN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TENN -9.2
- TENN: 5 portal additions / 8 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent −2.9 pts.
Kennesaw State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Tennessee ranks #111 nationally allowing 178.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #5 pass defense.
2Contain DeSean Bishop
Tennessee's top producer this season: 97 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Kennesaw State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kennesaw State converts 50.0% of third downs (#48 nationally) versus Tennessee's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Kennesaw State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tennessee sits at -2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Kennesaw State averages 508.0 total yards per game (#39 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Tennessee — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kennesaw State ranks #29 nationally allowing 111.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #22 run defense.
2Contain Latrelle Murrell
Kennesaw State's top producer this season: 88 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Tennessee has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Tennessee converts 45.5% of third downs (#63 nationally) versus Kennesaw State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Tennessee is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kennesaw State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Tennessee averages 638.0 total yards per game (#12 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Rickie CollinsKENN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 156
- Completion %
- 78.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.6
Faizon BrandonTENN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 226
- Completion %
- 76.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 13.3
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 246.4
Leading Rusher
Latrelle MurrellKENN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 88
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 9.8
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 45
DeSean BishopTENN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 97
- Carries
- 14
- Yards / Carry
- 6.9
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 20
Primary Receiver
Javon RogersKENN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 27.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 38
Mike MatthewsTENN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 132
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 33.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 57
Defensive Leader
Cameron MillerKENN · DB
- Tackles
- 4
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Amare CampbellTENN · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TENN by 21.3
Baseline TENN -21.5
Simulated Total
45.4
Baseline 45.4
Unit Edge
TENN QB
TENN Above average · KENN Below average
KENN passing vs TENN coverage
| 211.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 43.0 |
| 76.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 2.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 27.3% |
| 0.169 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.550 |
KENN rushing vs TENN run defense
| 297.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 178.0 |
| 6.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.9 |
| 3.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 19.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 12 |
| 0.729 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.249 |
TENN passing vs KENN coverage
| 111.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 309.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 77.8% |
| 57.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.4 |
| 7.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| -0.143 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.632 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 45.5% |
| 508.0 | Total yards / game | 638.0 |
| 160.0 | Yards allowed / game | 221.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.