Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
SDSU -5.0
SDSU 69.0% win · O/U 51.8
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.7 pts toward SDSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- JMU -1.5
- JMU: 1 portal additions / 4 departures, first year under Billy Napier — 2021–2025 archive weighted 54%, incoming portal talent −1.7 pts.
James Madison — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San Diego State ranks #113 nationally allowing 280.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #57 run defense.
2Contain Javion Kinnard
San Diego State's top producer this season: 79 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing James Madison has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
James Madison converts 40.0% of third downs (#81 nationally) versus San Diego State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
James Madison is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; San Diego State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
James Madison averages 291.0 total yards per game (#114 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
San Diego State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
James Madison ranks #93 nationally allowing 230.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #53 run defense.
2Contain JC Evans
James Madison's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing San Diego State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
San Diego State converts 50.0% of third downs (#51 nationally) versus James Madison's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
San Diego State is +0 in turnover margin (3 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; James Madison sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
San Diego State averages 394.0 total yards per game (#79 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
JC EvansJMU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 61
- Completion %
- 77.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 171.4
Jayden DenegalSDSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 137
- Completion %
- 70.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.1
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 165.3
Leading Rusher
JC EvansJMU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 7.7
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 23
Javion KinnardSDSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 79
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 9.9
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 55
Primary Receiver
Noah GreviousJMU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 39
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 9.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Justius LoweSDSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 56
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 28.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Defensive Leader
Jayon HarveyJMU · S
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Sione HalaSDSU · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SDSU by 5.2
Baseline SDSU -5.0
Simulated Total
51.8
Baseline 51.8
Unit Edge
SDSU QB
SDSU FBS average · JMU Below average
JMU passing vs SDSU coverage
| 118.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 280.0 |
| 66.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.4 |
| 6.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.6% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.392 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.289 |
JMU rushing vs SDSU run defense
| 173.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 95.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 5.6% |
| 22.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.211 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.156 |
SDSU passing vs JMU coverage
| 230.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 157.0 |
| 8.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 63.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.5 |
| 3.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.244 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.682 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 291.0 | Total yards / game | 394.0 |
| 321.0 | Yards allowed / game | 375.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.