Week 0 · Final
7 – 33
Vegas Line
North Dakota State -6.5
Total 46.5
Model Projection
NDSU -6.5
NDSU 73.1% win · O/U 46.5
Value Edge
Model agrees with market
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.4 pts toward NDSU on the 2026 3-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 3 games · 75%
- Historical baseline
- 25%
- Baseline margin
- JXST -3.9
- JXST: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Jacksonville State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Dakota State ranks #26 nationally allowing 52.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #23 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Jacksonville State converts 52.4% of third downs (#43 nationally) versus North Dakota State's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Jacksonville State is +0 in turnover margin (3 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; North Dakota State sits at +5.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Jacksonville State on the winning side of an even split.
North Dakota State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Jacksonville State ranks #116 nationally allowing 202.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #41 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
North Dakota State converts 42.9% of third downs (#72 nationally) versus Jacksonville State's 52.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
North Dakota State is +5 in turnover margin (6 forced, 1 lost) across 2 recorded games; Jacksonville State sits at +0.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts North Dakota State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NDSU by 6.5
Baseline NDSU -6.5
Simulated Total
46.5
Baseline 46.5
Unit Edge
JXST QB
NDSU Below average · JXST FBS average
JXST passing vs NDSU coverage
| 218.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 100.5 |
| 66.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.5 |
| 8.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 53.3% |
| 2.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.3% |
| 0.423 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.437 |
JXST rushing vs NDSU run defense
| 129.5 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 52.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.8 |
| 2.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.1% |
| 20.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| -0.090 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.376 |
NDSU passing vs JXST coverage
| 127.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 204.5 |
| 6.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.5% |
| 64.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.3 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.037 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.330 |
Efficiency & situational
| 52.4% | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 348.0 | Total yards / game | 373.0 |
| 329.0 | Yards allowed / game | 152.5 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +5 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.