Vegas Line
Iowa -14
Total 40.5
Model Projection
IOWA -10.5
IOWA 83.4% win · O/U 40.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: ISU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.8 pts toward ISU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- IOWA -7.0
- IOWA: 1 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −1.4 pts.
- ISU: 1 portal additions / 16 departures, first year under Jimmy Rogers — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −8.0 pts.
Iowa State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Iowa ranks #31 nationally allowing 113.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #4 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Iowa State converts 40.0% of third downs (#80 nationally) versus Iowa's 42.9%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Iowa State is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Iowa sits at +1.
4Clear 21 points
The market total for this game is 40.5. Anything above 21 points puts Iowa State on the winning side of an even split.
Iowa — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Iowa State ranks #48 nationally allowing 142.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #37 run defense.
2Contain Aiden Flora
Iowa State's top producer this season: 45 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Iowa has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Iowa converts 42.9% of third downs (#70 nationally) versus Iowa State's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Iowa is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Iowa State sits at +2.
5Clear 21 points
The market total for this game is 40.5. Anything above 21 points puts Iowa on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jaylen RaynorISU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 184
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.9
Leading Rusher
Aiden FloraISU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 45
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 6.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 17
Primary Receiver
Dominic OverbyISU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 85
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 42.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Defensive Leader
Sullivan SchlimgenISU · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
IOWA by 10.5
Baseline IOWA -10.5
Simulated Total
40.5
Baseline 40.5
Unit Edge
IOWA QB
IOWA FBS average · ISU FBS average
ISU passing vs IOWA coverage
| 195.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 113.0 |
| 52.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 11.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 54.2% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 25.0% |
| 0.324 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.274 |
ISU rushing vs IOWA run defense
| 108.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 7.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.2 |
| 2.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 45.5% |
| 14.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.311 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.323 |
IOWA passing vs ISU coverage
| 142.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 218.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 52.5% |
| 77.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.5 |
| 27.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.025 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.331 |
Efficiency & situational
| 40.0% | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 303.0 | Total yards / game | 507.0 |
| 209.0 | Yards allowed / game | 120.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.