Vegas Line
Purdue -34.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
PUR -31.0
PUR 99.2% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: IU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- PUR -5.1
- PUR: 5 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent +1.7 pts.
Indiana State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Purdue ranks #88 nationally allowing 218.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #35 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Indiana State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Purdue sits at +1.
3Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Indiana State on the winning side of an even split.
Purdue — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Purdue is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Indiana State sits at +0.
2Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Purdue on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
PUR by 31.0
Baseline PUR -31.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
PUR QB
PUR Above average · IU Below average
IU passing vs PUR coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 218.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 54.5% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.6% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.106 |
IU rushing vs PUR run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 66.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 37.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.035 |
PUR passing vs IU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 346.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 79.4% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.854 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 54.5% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 523.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 284.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.