Week 2 · Final
28 – 24
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
NIU -12.0
NIU 86.0% win · O/U 47
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- NIU -7.8
- NIU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Rob Harley — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.7 pts.
Illinois State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Northern Illinois ranks #134 nationally allowing 289.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #87 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Illinois State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Northern Illinois sits at -1.
Northern Illinois — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Northern Illinois is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Illinois State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Northern Illinois averages 120.0 total yards per game (#136 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NIU by 11.8
Baseline NIU -12.0
Simulated Total
47.0
Baseline 47
Unit Edge
NIU QB
NIU Below average · ILL Below average
ILL passing vs NIU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 218.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.5% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.331 |
ILL rushing vs NIU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 289.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 7.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 9.5% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.430 |
NIU passing vs ILL coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 113.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 54.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.274 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 20.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 120.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 507.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.