Vegas Line
Utah -37.5
Total 60.5
Model Projection
UTAH -34.0
UTAH 99.5% win · O/U 60.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: IDHO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UTAH -10.6
- UTAH: 3 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Morgan Scalley — 2021–2025 archive weighted 41%, incoming portal talent −2.7 pts.
Idaho — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Utah ranks #66 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #36 pass defense.
2Contain LaMarcus Bell
Utah's top producer this season: 87 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Idaho has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Idaho is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Utah sits at +2.
4Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 60.5. Anything above 31 points puts Idaho on the winning side of an even split.
Utah — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Utah is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Idaho sits at +0.
2Clear 31 points
The market total for this game is 60.5. Anything above 31 points puts Utah on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Devon DampierUTAH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 176
- Completion %
- 72.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.8
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 209.4
Leading Rusher
LaMarcus BellUTAH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 87
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 12.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 34
Primary Receiver
Braden PeganUTAH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 81
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 20.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 31
Defensive Leader
Jackson BenneeUTAH · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UTAH by 34.0
Baseline UTAH -34.0
Simulated Total
60.5
Baseline 60.5
Unit Edge
UTAH QB
UTAH Above average · IDHO Below average
IDHO passing vs UTAH coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 36.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.009 |
IDHO rushing vs UTAH run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 106.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.312 |
UTAH passing vs IDHO coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 269.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.4% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.3 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.703 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 633.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 225.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.