Vegas Line
Indiana -56.5
Total 64.5
Model Projection
IU -53.0
IU 100.0% win · O/U 64.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: HOW
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- IU -15.3
- IU: 10 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 62%, incoming portal talent +6.3 pts.
Howard — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Indiana ranks #96 nationally allowing 152.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #85 pass defense.
2Contain Turbo Richard
Indiana's top producer this season: 58 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Howard has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Howard is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Indiana sits at +1.
4Clear 33 points
The market total for this game is 64.5. Anything above 33 points puts Howard on the winning side of an even split.
Indiana — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Indiana is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Howard sits at +0.
2Clear 33 points
The market total for this game is 64.5. Anything above 33 points puts Indiana on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Josh HooverIU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 231
- Completion %
- 81.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 14.4
- TD : INT
- 4 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 285.0
Leading Rusher
Turbo RichardIU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 58
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 3.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 23
Primary Receiver
Charlie BeckerIU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 64
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 16.0
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 35
Defensive Leader
Isaiah JonesIU · LB
- Tackles
- 12
- Solo
- 8
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
IU by 53.0
Baseline IU -53.0
Simulated Total
64.5
Baseline 64.5
Unit Edge
IU QB
IU Above average · HOW Below average
HOW passing vs IU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 215.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 79.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.4% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.382 |
HOW rushing vs IU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 152.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 6.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.043 |
IU passing vs HOW coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 231.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 81.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 14.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.639 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 365.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 367.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.