Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TTU -7.5
TTU 76.3% win · O/U 46.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.2 pts toward HOU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- TTU -6.3
- TTU: 8 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 71%, incoming portal talent +6.0 pts.
- HOU: 5 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 81%, incoming portal talent +2.0 pts.
Houston — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Texas Tech ranks #41 nationally allowing 75.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #35 pass defense.
2Contain J'Koby Williams
Texas Tech's top producer this season: 71 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Houston has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Houston converts 53.8% of third downs (#38 nationally) versus Texas Tech's 41.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Houston is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas Tech sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Houston averages 533.0 total yards per game (#27 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Texas Tech — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Houston ranks #133 nationally allowing 376.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #8 run defense.
2Contain Makhi Hughes
Houston's top producer this season: 98 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas Tech has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Texas Tech converts 41.7% of third downs (#77 nationally) versus Houston's 53.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Texas Tech is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Houston sits at -2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Texas Tech averages 471.0 total yards per game (#52 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Conner WeigmanHOU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 305
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 156.4
Will HammondTTU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 298
- Completion %
- 78.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 158.6
Leading Rusher
Makhi HughesHOU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 98
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 5.8
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 18
J'Koby WilliamsTTU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 71
- Carries
- 13
- Yards / Carry
- 5.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 14
Primary Receiver
Amare ThomasHOU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 133
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 16.6
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Kenny JohnsonTTU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 76
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 19.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 31
Defensive Leader
Jaden YatesHOU · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Jamond MathisTTU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 2.5
- TFL
- 2.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TTU by 7.6
Baseline TTU -7.5
Simulated Total
46.3
Baseline 46.3
Unit Edge
TTU QB
TTU Above average · HOU FBS average
HOU passing vs TTU coverage
| 305.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 64.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.7 |
| 9.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.3% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.4% |
| 0.439 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.079 |
HOU rushing vs TTU run defense
| 228.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 75.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 3.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.6% |
| 15.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.176 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.155 |
TTU passing vs HOU coverage
| 376.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 298.0 |
| 7.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 60.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.8 |
| 8.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.289 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.451 |
Efficiency & situational
| 53.8% | Third-down conversion | 41.7% |
| 533.0 | Total yards / game | 471.0 |
| 402.0 | Yards allowed / game | 194.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.