Week 1 · Final
3 – 31
Vegas Line
Rice -22.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
RICE -19.0
RICE 94.9% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: HCU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- RICE -5.2
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Houston Christian — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Rice ranks #92 nationally allowing 148.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #18 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Houston Christian is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Rice sits at +1.
3Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Houston Christian on the winning side of an even split.
Rice — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Rice is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Houston Christian sits at +0.
2Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Rice on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
RICE by 19.0
Baseline RICE -19.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
RICE QB
RICE Below average · HCU Below average
HCU passing vs RICE coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 96.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 34.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.273 |
HCU rushing vs RICE run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 148.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 17.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.073 |
RICE passing vs HCU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 28.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 40.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 2.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.136 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 64.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 493.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 244.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.