Week 2 · Final
7 – 45
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
M-OH -14.0
M-OH 89.6% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- M-OH -10.0
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Holy Cross — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Miami (OH) ranks #138 nationally allowing 480.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #106 run defense.
2Contain Lazaro Rogers
Miami (OH)'s top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Holy Cross has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Holy Cross is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami (OH) sits at -1.
Miami (OH) — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Miami (OH) is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Holy Cross sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Miami (OH) averages 289.0 total yards per game (#115 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
David McCombM-OH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 240
- Completion %
- 48.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.3
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 119.6
Leading Rusher
Lazaro RogersM-OH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 21
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 8
Primary Receiver
Damarion WittenM-OH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 90
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 45.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Defensive Leader
CJ YoungM-OH · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
M-OH by 14.0
Baseline M-OH -14.0
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
M-OH QB
M-OH FBS average · HC Below average
HC passing vs M-OH coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 480.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 77.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.637 |
HC rushing vs M-OH run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 166.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.310 |
M-OH passing vs HC coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 261.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 51.4% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.260 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 23.1% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 289.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 646.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.