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360
Hawai'i logo

Away · #112

Hawai'i

1-2 · Mountain West · 27 pts

Week 0 · Final

27 – 37

Stanford logo

Home · #70

Stanford

1-1 · ACC · 37 pts

Sat, Aug 29, 5:00 PM MT Stanford Stadium ACC Network

Vegas Line

Stanford -4.5

Total 48.5

Model Projection

STAN -8.0

STAN 77.4% win · O/U 48.5

Value Edge

3.5 pt edge: STAN

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +6.0 pts toward STAN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
HAW -2.0
  • STAN: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Tavita Pritchard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Hawai'i logo

Hawai'i — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Attack through the air

    Stanford ranks #128 nationally allowing 352.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #46 run defense.

  2. 2Contain Micah Ford

    Stanford's top producer this season: 126 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Hawai'i has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Hawai'i converts 43.6% of third downs (#69 nationally) versus Stanford's 38.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Hawai'i is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; Stanford sits at +3.

  5. 5Clear 25 points

    The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts Hawai'i on the winning side of an even split.

Stanford logo

Stanford — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Hawai'i ranks #119 nationally allowing 210.5 rush yards per game — softer than their #84 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Devon Rice

    Hawai'i's top producer this season: 108 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Stanford has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Stanford converts 38.7% of third downs (#86 nationally) versus Hawai'i's 43.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Stanford is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 2 recorded games; Hawai'i sits at -2.

  5. 5Clear 25 points

    The market total for this game is 48.5. Anything above 25 points puts Stanford on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Micah AlejadoHAW · QB

Passing Yds
448
Completion %
52.2%
Yards / Attempt
4.9
TD : INT
2 : 1
TD/INT Ratio
2.00:1
Passer Rating
98.1

Davis WarrenSTAN · QB

Passing Yds
524
Completion %
57.3%
Yards / Attempt
7.0
TD : INT
1 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
120.4

Leading Rusher

Devon RiceHAW · RB

Rushing Yds
108
Carries
26
Yards / Carry
4.2
Rushing TD
1
Long
16

Micah FordSTAN · RB

Rushing Yds
126
Carries
36
Yards / Carry
3.5
Rushing TD
3
Long
28

Primary Receiver

Kainoa CarvalhoHAW · WR

Receiving Yds
98
Receptions
6
Yards / Catch
16.3
Receiving TD
0
Long
32

Benjamin BlackburnSTAN · TE

Receiving Yds
101
Receptions
12
Yards / Catch
8.4
Receiving TD
0
Long
16

Defensive Leader

Kona MooreHAW · DB

Tackles
24
Solo
16
Sacks
0.0
TFL
2.0
INT
0

Matt RoseSTAN · LB

Tackles
21
Solo
10
Sacks
0.0
TFL
1.5
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

STAN by 8.0

Baseline STAN -8.0

Simulated Total

48.5

Baseline 48.5

Unit Edge

STAN QB

STAN FBS average · HAW Below average

Open the full simulator

HAW passing vs STAN coverage

226.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G352.0
50.5%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed8.1
4.8Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed70.1%
2.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate2.3%
0.046EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass0.440

HAW rushing vs STAN run defense

82.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G83.5
3.0Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed3.1
3.4Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate12.5%
14.0%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss9
0.037EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.020

STAN passing vs HAW coverage

213.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG265.5
8.2Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %57.9%
57.7%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt7.0
1.9%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio1.00:1
0.224Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.324

Efficiency & situational

43.6%Third-down conversion38.7%
308.0Total yards / game391.0
423.5Yards allowed / game435.5
-2Turnover margin+3

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.