Vegas Line
Maryland -45.5
Total 56.5
Model Projection
MD -42.0
MD 99.8% win · O/U 56.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: HAMP
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- MD -9.5
- MD: 1 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −1.3 pts.
Hampton — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Maryland ranks #9 nationally allowing 75.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #7 run defense.
2Contain DeJuan Williams
Maryland's top producer this season: 116 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Hampton has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Hampton is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Maryland sits at +3.
4Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts Hampton on the winning side of an even split.
Maryland — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Maryland is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Hampton sits at +0.
2Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts Maryland on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Malik WashingtonMD · QB
- Passing Yds
- 186
- Completion %
- 61.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 122.3
Leading Rusher
DeJuan WilliamsMD · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 116
- Carries
- 3
- Yards / Carry
- 38.7
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 94
Primary Receiver
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingMD · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 57
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 9.5
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Trey ReddickMD · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MD by 42.0
Baseline MD -42.0
Simulated Total
56.5
Baseline 56.5
Unit Edge
MD QB
MD FBS average · HAMP Below average
HAMP passing vs MD coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 75.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.6% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 26.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.038 |
HAMP rushing vs MD run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 10.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 50.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.625 |
MD passing vs HAMP coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 281.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.280 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 57.1% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 646.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 85.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.