Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UGA -8.5
UGA 78.5% win · O/U 43.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.7 pts toward UGA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UGA -4.7
- ARK: 8 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Ryan Silverfield — 2021–2025 archive weighted 35%, incoming portal talent +2.3 pts.
- UGA: 6 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +1.5 pts.
Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Arkansas ranks #30 nationally allowing 113.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #15 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Georgia converts 66.7% of third downs (#9 nationally) versus Arkansas's 58.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arkansas sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Georgia averages 660.0 total yards per game (#5 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Arkansas — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia ranks #20 nationally allowing 99.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #6 run defense.
2Contain Nate Frazier
Georgia's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Arkansas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Arkansas converts 58.8% of third downs (#23 nationally) versus Georgia's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Arkansas is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Arkansas averages 415.0 total yards per game (#61 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Gunner StocktonUGA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 202
- Completion %
- 93.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.6
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 261.7
Leading Rusher
Nate FrazierUGA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 18.0
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 48
Primary Receiver
Jeremy BellUGA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 54.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 54
Defensive Leader
Raylen WilsonUGA · LB
- Tackles
- 3
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UGA by 8.4
Baseline UGA -8.5
Simulated Total
43.7
Baseline 43.7
Unit Edge
UGA QB
ARK Above average · UGA Top 25 level
UGA passing vs ARK coverage
| 388.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 113.0 |
| 75.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 11.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 5.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.3% |
| 0.614 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.071 |
UGA rushing vs ARK run defense
| 272.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 40.0 |
| 10.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 5.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.867 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.050 |
ARK passing vs UGA coverage
| 99.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 267.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.6% |
| 57.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.6 |
| 11.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.100 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.573 |
Efficiency & situational
| 66.7% | Third-down conversion | 58.8% |
| 660.0 | Total yards / game | 415.0 |
| 109.0 | Yards allowed / game | 153.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.