Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UCF -10.5
UCF 83.0% win · O/U 51.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.8 pts toward UCF on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- UCF -5.5
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Georgia State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
UCF ranks #68 nationally allowing 107.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #8 pass defense.
2Contain Duke Watson
UCF's top producer this season: 110 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Georgia State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Georgia State converts 58.3% of third downs (#25 nationally) versus UCF's 62.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Georgia State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; UCF sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Georgia State averages 563.0 total yards per game (#18 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
UCF — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia State ranks #47 nationally allowing 84.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #39 pass defense.
2Contain Lanear McCrary Jr.
Georgia State's top producer this season: 75 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing UCF has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
UCF converts 62.5% of third downs (#18 nationally) versus Georgia State's 58.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
UCF is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
UCF averages 560.0 total yards per game (#20 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Cameran BrownGAST · QB
- Passing Yds
- 190
- Completion %
- 75.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.8
Alonza BarnettUCF · QB
- Passing Yds
- 158
- Completion %
- 61.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 142.1
Leading Rusher
Lanear McCrary Jr.GAST · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 75
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 8.3
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 19
Duke WatsonUCF · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 110
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 15.7
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 64
Primary Receiver
DJ Murray Jr.GAST · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 30
Joshua DerryUCF · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 45
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 15.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 26
Defensive Leader
Coby OwensGAST · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Lewis CarterUCF · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UCF by 10.3
Baseline UCF -10.5
Simulated Total
51.6
Baseline 51.6
Unit Edge
UCF QB
UCF FBS average · GAST FBS average
GAST passing vs UCF coverage
| 279.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 74.0 |
| 75.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.7 |
| 8.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.0% |
| 0.697 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.312 |
GAST rushing vs UCF run defense
| 284.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 107.0 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.7 |
| 4.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 4.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| 0.571 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.324 |
UCF passing vs GAST coverage
| 125.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 200.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 68.2% |
| 47.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.1 |
| 21.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.161 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.038 |
Efficiency & situational
| 58.3% | Third-down conversion | 62.5% |
| 563.0 | Total yards / game | 560.0 |
| 209.0 | Yards allowed / game | 181.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.