Week 2 · Final
31 – 17
Vegas Line
Kennesaw State -9.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
KENN -6.0
KENN 71.6% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: GAST
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.3 pts toward GAST on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- GAST -1.6
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Georgia State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kennesaw State ranks #29 nationally allowing 111.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #22 run defense.
2Contain Latrelle Murrell
Kennesaw State's top producer this season: 88 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Georgia State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Georgia State converts 58.3% of third downs (#25 nationally) versus Kennesaw State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Georgia State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kennesaw State sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Georgia State on the winning side of an even split.
Kennesaw State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia State ranks #47 nationally allowing 84.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #39 pass defense.
2Contain Lanear McCrary Jr.
Georgia State's top producer this season: 75 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Kennesaw State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kennesaw State converts 50.0% of third downs (#48 nationally) versus Georgia State's 58.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Kennesaw State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia State sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Kennesaw State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Cameran BrownGAST · QB
- Passing Yds
- 190
- Completion %
- 75.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.8
Rickie CollinsKENN · QB
- Passing Yds
- 156
- Completion %
- 78.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.8
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.6
Leading Rusher
Lanear McCrary Jr.GAST · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 75
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 8.3
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 19
Latrelle MurrellKENN · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 88
- Carries
- 9
- Yards / Carry
- 9.8
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 45
Primary Receiver
DJ Murray Jr.GAST · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 30
Javon RogersKENN · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 27.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 38
Defensive Leader
Coby OwensGAST · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Cameron MillerKENN · DB
- Tackles
- 4
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
KENN by 6.0
Baseline KENN -6.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
GAST QB
KENN Below average · GAST FBS average
GAST passing vs KENN coverage
| 279.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 111.0 |
| 75.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.3 |
| 8.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 7.7% |
| 0.697 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.143 |
GAST rushing vs KENN run defense
| 284.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 49.0 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 4.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.0% |
| 4.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.571 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.424 |
KENN passing vs GAST coverage
| 125.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 211.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.5% |
| 47.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.2 |
| 21.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| -0.161 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.169 |
Efficiency & situational
| 58.3% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 563.0 | Total yards / game | 508.0 |
| 209.0 | Yards allowed / game | 160.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.