Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
JXST -2.0
JXST 57.6% win · O/U 50
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.9 pts toward GASO on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- JXST -3.9
- JXST: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Georgia Southern — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Jacksonville State ranks #116 nationally allowing 202.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #41 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Georgia Southern converts 38.5% of third downs (#87 nationally) versus Jacksonville State's 52.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Georgia Southern is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Jacksonville State sits at +0.
4Move the ball efficiently
Georgia Southern averages 513.0 total yards per game (#37 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Jacksonville State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia Southern ranks #26 nationally allowing 109.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #5 run defense.
2Contain Jamarian Samuel
Georgia Southern's top producer this season: 92 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Jacksonville State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Jacksonville State converts 52.4% of third downs (#43 nationally) versus Georgia Southern's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Jacksonville State is +0 in turnover margin (3 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; Georgia Southern sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Jacksonville State averages 348.0 total yards per game (#100 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Max JohnsonGASO · QB
- Passing Yds
- 562
- Completion %
- 71.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 140.8
Leading Rusher
Jamarian SamuelGASO · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 92
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 11.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Ashton HollinsGASO · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 212
- Receptions
- 16
- Yards / Catch
- 13.3
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 57
Defensive Leader
Rashon Myles Jr.GASO · LB
- Tackles
- 12
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 2.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
JXST by 2.0
Baseline JXST -2.0
Simulated Total
50.0
Baseline 50
Unit Edge
GASO QB
JXST FBS average · GASO FBS average
GASO passing vs JXST coverage
| 351.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 127.0 |
| 70.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.0 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.3% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 7.1% |
| 0.449 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.037 |
GASO rushing vs JXST run defense
| 162.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 202.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.9 |
| 4.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 19.6% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 10 |
| 0.307 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.169 |
JXST passing vs GASO coverage
| 109.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 218.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.0% |
| 31.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.2 |
| 20.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.50:1 |
| -0.380 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.423 |
Efficiency & situational
| 38.5% | Third-down conversion | 52.4% |
| 513.0 | Total yards / game | 348.0 |
| 117.0 | Yards allowed / game | 329.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.