Week 2 · Final
7 – 22
Vegas Line
Clemson -20.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
CLEM -17.0
CLEM 93.2% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: GASO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.1 pts toward CLEM on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CLEM -6.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Georgia Southern — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Clemson ranks #135 nationally allowing 309.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #123 pass defense.
2Contain Jarvis Green
Clemson's top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Georgia Southern has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Georgia Southern converts 38.5% of third downs (#87 nationally) versus Clemson's 7.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Georgia Southern is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Clemson sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Georgia Southern on the winning side of an even split.
Clemson — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia Southern ranks #26 nationally allowing 109.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #5 run defense.
2Contain Jamarian Samuel
Georgia Southern's top producer this season: 92 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Clemson has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Clemson converts 7.7% of third downs (#135 nationally) versus Georgia Southern's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Clemson is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia Southern sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Clemson on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Max JohnsonGASO · QB
- Passing Yds
- 562
- Completion %
- 71.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 140.8
Christopher VizzinaCLEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 83
- Completion %
- 62.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.2
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 93.6
Leading Rusher
Jamarian SamuelGASO · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 92
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 11.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Jarvis GreenCLEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 21
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 5.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 9
Primary Receiver
Ashton HollinsGASO · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 212
- Receptions
- 16
- Yards / Catch
- 13.3
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 57
T.J. MooreCLEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 31
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 7.8
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Defensive Leader
Rashon Myles Jr.GASO · LB
- Tackles
- 12
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 2.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Sammy BrownCLEM · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CLEM by 17.0
Baseline CLEM -17.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
CLEM QB
CLEM FBS average · GASO FBS average
GASO passing vs CLEM coverage
| 351.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 335.0 |
| 70.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.3 |
| 7.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 61.1% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.449 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.328 |
GASO rushing vs CLEM run defense
| 162.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 309.0 |
| 5.4 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.3 |
| 4.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 2.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.307 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.408 |
CLEM passing vs GASO coverage
| 109.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 105.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.6% |
| 31.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.8 |
| 20.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| -0.380 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.551 |
Efficiency & situational
| 38.5% | Third-down conversion | 7.7% |
| 513.0 | Total yards / game | 145.0 |
| 117.0 | Yards allowed / game | 644.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.