Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
SJSU -3.0
SJSU 61.7% win · O/U 49.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.3 pts toward SJSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- FRES -2.2
- SJSU: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Fresno State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San José State ranks #104 nationally allowing 257.5 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #83 run defense.
2Contain Jabari Bates
San José State's top producer this season: 156 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Fresno State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Fresno State converts 20.0% of third downs (#126 nationally) versus San José State's 37.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Fresno State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; San José State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Fresno State averages 116.0 total yards per game (#137 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
San José State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Fresno State ranks #135 nationally allowing 412.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #87 run defense.
2Contain Rayshon Luke
Fresno State's top producer this season: 21 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing San José State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
San José State converts 37.0% of third downs (#95 nationally) versus Fresno State's 20.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
San José State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; Fresno State sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
San José State averages 394.5 total yards per game (#78 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jayden MandalFRES · QB
- Passing Yds
- 77
- Completion %
- 46.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.1
- TD : INT
- 0 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 76.5
Luke WeaverSJSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 550
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.7
- TD : INT
- 5 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 5.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 147.5
Leading Rusher
Rayshon LukeFRES · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 21
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 2.6
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 8
Jabari BatesSJSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 156
- Carries
- 31
- Yards / Carry
- 5.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 13
Primary Receiver
Harold DuvallFRES · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 34
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 17.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 17
Cooper HochSJSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 139
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 19.9
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
K'Vion ThunderbirdFRES · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Naseri DanielsonSJSU · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 9
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SJSU by 3.1
Baseline SJSU -3.0
Simulated Total
49.3
Baseline 49.3
Unit Edge
FRES QB
SJSU Below average · FRES FBS average
FRES passing vs SJSU coverage
| 77.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 257.5 |
| 46.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 68.4% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.5% |
| 0.526 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.237 |
FRES rushing vs SJSU run defense
| 39.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 135.5 |
| 1.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 1.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.7% |
| 35.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.456 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.155 |
SJSU passing vs FRES coverage
| 412.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 275.0 |
| 13.3 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 60.3% |
| 93.5% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 1.586 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.416 |
Efficiency & situational
| 20.0% | Third-down conversion | 37.0% |
| 116.0 | Total yards / game | 394.5 |
| 552.0 | Yards allowed / game | 393.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.