Week 1 · Final
0 – 38
Vegas Line
North Dakota State -41.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
NDSU -38.0
NDSU 99.7% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: FOR
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- NDSU -6.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Fordham — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Dakota State ranks #26 nationally allowing 52.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #23 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Fordham is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Dakota State sits at +5.
3Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Fordham on the winning side of an even split.
North Dakota State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
North Dakota State is +5 in turnover margin (6 forced, 1 lost) across 2 recorded games; Fordham sits at +0.
2Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts North Dakota State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
NDSU by 38.0
Baseline NDSU -38.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
NDSU QB
NDSU Below average · FOR Below average
FOR passing vs NDSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 100.5 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 53.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.3% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.437 |
FOR rushing vs NDSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 52.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.8 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.1% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.376 |
NDSU passing vs FOR coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 204.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.5% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.3 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.330 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 42.9% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 373.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 152.5 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +5 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.