Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
AUB -1.0
AUB 54.2% win · O/U 52.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.2 pts toward FLA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- FLA -0.7
- AUB: 13 portal additions / 13 departures, first year under Alex Golesh — 2021–2025 archive weighted 15%, incoming portal talent −2.5 pts.
- FLA: 8 portal additions / 9 departures, first year under Jon Sumrall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −2.1 pts.
Florida — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Auburn ranks #122 nationally allowing 333.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #63 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida converts 55.6% of third downs (#32 nationally) versus Auburn's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Florida is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Auburn sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Florida averages 624.0 total yards per game (#14 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Auburn — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Florida ranks #112 nationally allowing 276.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #75 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Auburn converts 55.6% of third downs (#31 nationally) versus Florida's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Auburn is -1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida sits at +2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Auburn averages 389.0 total yards per game (#81 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
AUB by 1.1
Baseline AUB -1.0
Simulated Total
52.7
Baseline 52.7
Unit Edge
FLA QB
AUB Above average · FLA Top 25 level
FLA passing vs AUB coverage
| 343.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 333.0 |
| 76.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 13.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.607 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.309 |
FLA rushing vs AUB run defense
| 281.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 103.0 |
| 6.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.3 |
| 3.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.3% |
| 16.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| 0.669 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.257 |
AUB passing vs FLA coverage
| 276.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 259.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 74.3% |
| 64.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 3.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.045 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.108 |
Efficiency & situational
| 55.6% | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 624.0 | Total yards / game | 389.0 |
| 396.0 | Yards allowed / game | 436.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.