Week 1 · Final
9 – 19
Vegas Line
South Florida -14.5
Total 53.5
Model Projection
USF -11.0
USF 84.5% win · O/U 53.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: FIU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.5 pts toward USF on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- USF -2.2
- USF: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Brian Hartline — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
Florida International — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Florida ranks #116 nationally allowing 301.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #45 run defense.
2Contain Jason Collins Jr.
South Florida's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Florida International has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Florida International converts 29.4% of third downs (#113 nationally) versus South Florida's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Florida International is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Florida sits at +3.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts Florida International on the winning side of an even split.
South Florida — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida International ranks #69 nationally allowing 108.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #22 pass defense.
2Contain J.J. Kohl
Florida International's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing South Florida has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
South Florida converts 38.5% of third downs (#89 nationally) versus Florida International's 29.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
South Florida is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida International sits at -3.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts South Florida on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 301
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.50:1
- Passer Rating
- 111.2
Michael Van Buren Jr.USF · QB
- Passing Yds
- 100
- Completion %
- 61.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.6
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.8
Leading Rusher
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 5.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Jason Collins Jr.USF · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Maguire AndersonFIU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 87
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 10.9
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Arhmad BranchUSF · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 9.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 14
Defensive Leader
Deandre BoykinsFIU · DB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Rodney HillUSF · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USF by 11.0
Baseline USF -11.0
Simulated Total
53.5
Baseline 53.5
Unit Edge
USF QB
USF FBS average · FIU Below average
FIU passing vs USF coverage
| 301.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 301.0 |
| 62.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 62.0% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.0% |
| 0.214 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.214 |
FIU rushing vs USF run defense
| 80.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 80.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 2.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 25.0% |
| 25.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| -0.072 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.072 |
USF passing vs FIU coverage
| 100.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 100.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 61.1% |
| 61.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.6 |
| 5.6% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.156 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.156 |
Efficiency & situational
| 29.4% | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 381.0 | Total yards / game | 208.0 |
| 208.0 | Yards allowed / game | 381.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.