Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
FAU -2.0
FAU 56.9% win · O/U 56.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.5 pts toward FIU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- FAU -0.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Florida International — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida Atlantic ranks #133 nationally allowing 281.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #126 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida International converts 29.4% of third downs (#113 nationally) versus Florida Atlantic's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Florida International is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida Atlantic sits at -2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Florida International averages 381.0 total yards per game (#84 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Florida Atlantic — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida International ranks #69 nationally allowing 108.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #22 pass defense.
2Contain J.J. Kohl
Florida International's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Florida Atlantic has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Florida Atlantic converts 50.0% of third downs (#46 nationally) versus Florida International's 29.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Florida Atlantic is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida International sits at -3.
5Move the ball efficiently
Florida Atlantic averages 396.0 total yards per game (#74 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 301
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.50:1
- Passer Rating
- 111.2
Leading Rusher
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 5.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Maguire AndersonFIU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 87
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 10.9
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Deandre BoykinsFIU · DB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
FAU by 1.8
Baseline FAU -2.0
Simulated Total
56.4
Baseline 56.4
Unit Edge
FAU QB
FAU Below average · FIU Below average
FIU passing vs FAU coverage
| 301.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 343.0 |
| 62.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 13.2 |
| 6.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 76.9% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.8% |
| 0.214 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.607 |
FIU rushing vs FAU run defense
| 80.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 281.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 6.9 |
| 2.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 25.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.072 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.669 |
FAU passing vs FIU coverage
| 100.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 276.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 64.2% |
| 61.1% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.2 |
| 5.6% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.50:1 |
| 0.156 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.045 |
Efficiency & situational
| 29.4% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 381.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 208.0 | Yards allowed / game | 624.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.