Week 1 · Final
21 – 66
Vegas Line
Florida -25.5
Total 59.5
Model Projection
FLA -22.0
FLA 96.7% win · O/U 59.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: FAU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.6 pts toward FLA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- FLA -4.3
- FLA: 8 portal additions / 9 departures, first year under Jon Sumrall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −2.1 pts.
Florida Atlantic — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Florida ranks #112 nationally allowing 276.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #75 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida Atlantic converts 50.0% of third downs (#46 nationally) versus Florida's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Florida Atlantic is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida sits at +2.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 59.5. Anything above 30 points puts Florida Atlantic on the winning side of an even split.
Florida — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida Atlantic ranks #133 nationally allowing 281.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #126 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida converts 55.6% of third downs (#32 nationally) versus Florida Atlantic's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Florida is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida Atlantic sits at -2.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 59.5. Anything above 30 points puts Florida on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
FLA by 22.0
Baseline FLA -22.0
Simulated Total
59.5
Baseline 59.5
Unit Edge
FLA QB
FLA Top 25 level · FAU Below average
FAU passing vs FLA coverage
| 276.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 276.0 |
| 64.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.2 |
| 5.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.2% |
| 0.50:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.8% |
| 0.045 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.045 |
FAU rushing vs FLA run defense
| 120.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 120.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 5.0% |
| 5.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.353 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.353 |
FLA passing vs FAU coverage
| 343.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 343.0 |
| 13.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.9% |
| 76.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 13.2 |
| 3.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.607 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.607 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 396.0 | Total yards / game | 624.0 |
| 624.0 | Yards allowed / game | 396.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.