Vegas Line
ORE -11.5
Total 38.5
Model Projection
ORE -8.0
ORE 77.4% win · O/U 38.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: MICH
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.5 pts toward ORE on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- MICH -0.7
- ORE: 8 portal additions / 15 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −4.5 pts.
- MICH: 7 portal additions / 8 departures, first year under Kyle Whittingham — 2021–2025 archive weighted 22%, incoming portal talent −0.7 pts.
Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oregon ranks #65 nationally allowing 181.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #56 run defense.
2Contain Jordon Davison
Oregon's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Michigan has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Michigan converts 30.0% of third downs (#112 nationally) versus Oregon's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Michigan is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon sits at -1.
5Clear 20 points
The market total for this game is 38.5. Anything above 20 points puts Michigan on the winning side of an even split.
Oregon — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Michigan ranks #79 nationally allowing 132.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #15 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Oregon converts 33.3% of third downs (#103 nationally) versus Michigan's 30.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Oregon is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Michigan sits at -3.
4Clear 20 points
The market total for this game is 38.5. Anything above 20 points puts Oregon on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dante MooreORE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 378
- Completion %
- 75.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.2
Leading Rusher
Jordon DavisonORE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 7.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Primary Receiver
Jeremiah McClellanORE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 150
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Koi PerichORE · DB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ORE by 8.0
Baseline ORE -8.0
Simulated Total
38.5
Baseline 38.5
Unit Edge
ORE QB
ORE Above average · MICH Above average
MICH passing vs ORE coverage
| 170.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 181.0 |
| 52.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 7.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.7% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.3% |
| 0.310 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.291 |
MICH rushing vs ORE run defense
| 106.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 93.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 8.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.161 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.024 |
ORE passing vs MICH coverage
| 89.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 378.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.7% |
| 71.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 9.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| -0.167 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.349 |
Efficiency & situational
| 30.0% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 276.0 | Total yards / game | 497.0 |
| 221.0 | Yards allowed / game | 274.0 |
| -3 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.