Vegas Line
LSU -4
Total 46.5
Model Projection
LSU -0.5
LSU 52.7% win · O/U 46.5
Value Edge
3.3 pt edge: TEX
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +9.3 pts toward TEX on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- LSU -6.4
- LSU: 19 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Lane Kiffin — 2021–2025 archive weighted 15%, incoming portal talent +8.0 pts.
- TEX: 9 portal additions / 13 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −0.6 pts.
Texas — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
LSU ranks #25 nationally allowing 105.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #16 run defense.
2Contain Sam Leavitt
LSU's top producer this season: 113 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Texas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Texas converts 73.3% of third downs (#4 nationally) versus LSU's 68.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Texas is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; LSU sits at +0.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts Texas on the winning side of an even split.
LSU — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Texas ranks #101 nationally allowing 161.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #71 pass defense.
2Contain Daylan Smothers
Texas's top producer this season: 70 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing LSU has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
LSU converts 68.8% of third downs (#7 nationally) versus Texas's 73.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
LSU is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas sits at +2.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 46.5. Anything above 24 points puts LSU on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Arch ManningTEX · QB
- Passing Yds
- 305
- Completion %
- 74.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.3
- TD : INT
- 4 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 4.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 210.4
Sam LeavittLSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 230
- Completion %
- 57.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.2
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 130.8
Leading Rusher
Daylan SmothersTEX · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 70
- Carries
- 10
- Yards / Carry
- 7.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Sam LeavittLSU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 113
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 9.4
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 18
Primary Receiver
Ryan WingoTEX · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 121
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 17.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 45
Winston WatkinsLSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 110
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 15.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 32
Defensive Leader
Jelani McDonaldTEX · DB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 7
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Whit WeeksLSU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
LSU by 0.7
Baseline LSU -0.5
Simulated Total
46.5
Baseline 46.5
Unit Edge
TEX QB
LSU Above average · TEX Top 25 level
TEX passing vs LSU coverage
| 360.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 105.0 |
| 76.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.8 |
| 10.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.6% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 18.2% |
| 0.991 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.551 |
TEX rushing vs LSU run defense
| 156.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 40.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.5 |
| 2.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 54.5% |
| 37.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.023 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.530 |
LSU passing vs TEX coverage
| 188.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 335.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 61.1% |
| 69.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.3 |
| 6.9% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.429 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.328 |
Efficiency & situational
| 73.3% | Third-down conversion | 68.8% |
| 516.0 | Total yards / game | 644.0 |
| 349.0 | Yards allowed / game | 145.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.