Vegas Line
UGA -15.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
UGA -18.0
UGA 94.0% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
2.4 pt edge: UGA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +11.5 pts toward UGA on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- UGA -3.9
- UGA: 6 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +1.5 pts.
- MIZ: 11 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 46%, incoming portal talent +2.5 pts.
Missouri — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia ranks #20 nationally allowing 99.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #6 run defense.
2Contain Nate Frazier
Georgia's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Missouri has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Missouri converts 60.0% of third downs (#21 nationally) versus Georgia's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Missouri is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia sits at +0.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Missouri on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri ranks #50 nationally allowing 89.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #27 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Georgia converts 66.7% of third downs (#9 nationally) versus Missouri's 60.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Georgia is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri sits at -1.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Georgia on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Gunner StocktonUGA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 202
- Completion %
- 93.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.6
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 261.7
Leading Rusher
Nate FrazierUGA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 4
- Yards / Carry
- 18.0
- Rushing TD
- 3
- Long
- 48
Primary Receiver
Jeremy BellUGA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 54
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 54.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 54
Defensive Leader
Raylen WilsonUGA · LB
- Tackles
- 3
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UGA by 17.9
Baseline UGA -18.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
UGA QB
UGA Top 25 level · MIZ Above average
MIZ passing vs UGA coverage
| 357.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 99.0 |
| 78.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.8 |
| 10.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.7% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 11.5% |
| 0.928 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.100 |
MIZ rushing vs UGA run defense
| 205.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 10.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 3.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 45.5% |
| 17.4% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| 0.052 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.688 |
UGA passing vs MIZ coverage
| 109.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 388.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 75.8% |
| 45.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.8 |
| 4.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| -0.421 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.614 |
Efficiency & situational
| 60.0% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 562.0 | Total yards / game | 660.0 |
| 198.0 | Yards allowed / game | 109.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.