Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
WIS -11.5
WIS 85.8% win · O/U 45.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.5 pts toward WIS on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WIS -2.2
- WIS: 5 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 71%, incoming portal talent −0.2 pts.
Eastern Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Wisconsin ranks #98 nationally allowing 239.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #70 run defense.
2Contain Abu Sama III
Wisconsin's top producer this season: 49 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Eastern Michigan has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Eastern Michigan converts 25.8% of third downs (#119 nationally) versus Wisconsin's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Eastern Michigan is +2 in turnover margin (4 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; Wisconsin sits at -2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Eastern Michigan averages 314.5 total yards per game (#108 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Wisconsin — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Eastern Michigan ranks #108 nationally allowing 267.5 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #55 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wisconsin converts 38.5% of third downs (#90 nationally) versus Eastern Michigan's 25.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Wisconsin is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Eastern Michigan sits at +2.
4Move the ball efficiently
Wisconsin averages 284.0 total yards per game (#117 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Colton JosephWIS · QB
- Passing Yds
- 217
- Completion %
- 63.3%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.2
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 128.4
Leading Rusher
Abu Sama IIIWIS · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 49
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 3.3
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 7
Primary Receiver
Malachi ColemanWIS · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 76
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 19.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 28
Defensive Leader
Mason PosaWIS · LB
- Tackles
- 15
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WIS by 11.7
Baseline WIS -11.5
Simulated Total
45.9
Baseline 45.9
Unit Edge
WIS QB
WIS FBS average · EMU Below average
EMU passing vs WIS coverage
| 226.5 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 239.0 |
| 63.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.2 |
| 5.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.5% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.4% |
| 0.154 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.442 |
EMU rushing vs WIS run defense
| 88.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 111.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.5 |
| 2.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 3.2% |
| 18.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 1 |
| -0.127 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.219 |
WIS passing vs EMU coverage
| 267.5 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 217.0 |
| 6.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.3% |
| 55.2% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.2 |
| 3.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.144 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.266 |
Efficiency & situational
| 25.8% | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 314.5 | Total yards / game | 284.0 |
| 360.5 | Yards allowed / game | 350.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.