Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TLSA -9.5
TLSA 81.6% win · O/U 48.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- TLSA -5.7
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
East Texas A&M — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Tulsa ranks #99 nationally allowing 241.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #77 run defense.
2Contain Damari Alston
Tulsa's top producer this season: 73 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing East Texas A&M has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
East Texas A&M is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Tulsa sits at +3.
Tulsa — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Tulsa is +3 in turnover margin (4 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; East Texas A&M sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Tulsa averages 361.0 total yards per game (#95 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Baylor HayesTLSA · QB
- Passing Yds
- 227
- Completion %
- 70.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.5
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 155.7
Leading Rusher
Damari AlstonTLSA · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 73
- Carries
- 15
- Yards / Carry
- 4.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 29
Primary Receiver
Oran Singleton Jr.TLSA · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 99
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 24.8
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 56
Defensive Leader
Chris Thompson Jr.TLSA · LB
- Tackles
- 10
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TLSA by 9.7
Baseline TLSA -9.5
Simulated Total
48.3
Baseline 48.3
Unit Edge
TLSA QB
TLSA FBS average · ETAM Below average
ETAM passing vs TLSA coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 241.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.9 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.1% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.151 |
ETAM rushing vs TLSA run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 127.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 22.2% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.116 |
TLSA passing vs ETAM coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 227.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.443 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 9.1% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 361.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 368.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.