Week 2 · Final
3 – 35
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
UNC -13.5
UNC 89.2% win · O/U 48.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- UNC -9.7
- UNC: 3 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 71%, incoming portal talent −2.2 pts.
East Tennessee State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
North Carolina ranks #65 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #64 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
East Tennessee State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; North Carolina sits at -1.
North Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
North Carolina is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; East Tennessee State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
North Carolina averages 322.0 total yards per game (#105 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UNC by 13.7
Baseline UNC -13.5
Simulated Total
48.9
Baseline 48.9
Unit Edge
UNC QB
UNC FBS average · ETSU Below average
ETSU passing vs UNC coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 175.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 62.5% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 9.4% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.019 |
ETSU rushing vs UNC run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 106.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 19.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.031 |
UNC passing vs ETSU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 232.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 57.1% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.3 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.269 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 27.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 322.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 281.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.