Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ODU -3.5
ODU 63.9% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.1 pts toward ECU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ODU -1.8
- ODU: 0 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
- ECU: 1 portal additions / 7 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent −3.8 pts.
East Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Old Dominion ranks #76 nationally allowing 126.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #17 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
East Carolina converts 0.0% of third downs (#136 nationally) versus Old Dominion's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
East Carolina is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Old Dominion sits at +1.
4Move the ball efficiently
East Carolina averages 162.0 total yards per game (#132 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Old Dominion — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
East Carolina ranks #120 nationally allowing 227.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #106 pass defense.
2Contain Ashton Gray
East Carolina's top producer this season: 17 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Old Dominion has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Old Dominion converts 55.6% of third downs (#34 nationally) versus East Carolina's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Old Dominion is +1 in turnover margin (3 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; East Carolina sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Old Dominion averages 319.0 total yards per game (#107 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Mitch GriffisECU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 137
- Completion %
- 62.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.6
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 142.6
Leading Rusher
Ashton GrayECU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 17
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 2.8
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 9
Primary Receiver
Tyler JohnsonECU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 68
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 68.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 68
Defensive Leader
Crews LawECU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ODU by 3.7
Baseline ODU -3.5
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
ODU QB
ODU FBS average · ECU FBS average
ECU passing vs ODU coverage
| 160.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 94.0 |
| 57.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 8.4 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 70.0% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.0% |
| 0.066 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.229 |
ECU rushing vs ODU run defense
| 2.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 126.0 |
| 0.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.1 |
| -1.5 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.7% |
| 54.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| -0.470 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.195 |
ODU passing vs ECU coverage
| 260.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 137.0 |
| 8.1 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 69.2% |
| 59.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.5 |
| 3.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.299 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.553 |
Efficiency & situational
| 0.0% | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 162.0 | Total yards / game | 319.0 |
| 487.0 | Yards allowed / game | 220.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.