Vegas Line
Air Force -31.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
AF -28.0
AF 98.7% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: DUQ
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- AF -9.6
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Duquesne — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Air Force ranks #28 nationally allowing 54.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #6 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Duquesne is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Air Force sits at +2.
3Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Duquesne on the winning side of an even split.
Air Force — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Air Force is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Duquesne sits at +0.
2Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Air Force on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
AF by 28.0
Baseline AF -28.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
AF QB
AF Below average · DUQ Below average
DUQ passing vs AF coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 53.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 2.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 40.9% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.131 |
DUQ rushing vs AF run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 54.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.107 |
AF passing vs DUQ coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 19.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 42.9% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 2.7 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.404 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 60.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 450.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 107.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.