Vegas Line
MIA -13.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
MIA -15.0
MIA 91.0% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
1.5 pt edge: MIA
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.7 pts toward MIA on the 2026 9-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Current reality
- 2026 sample
- 9 games · 90%
- Historical baseline
- 10%
- Baseline margin
- MIA -7.8
- MIA: 8 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 59%, incoming portal talent +5.0 pts.
- DUKE: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent −2.8 pts.
Duke — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Miami ranks #90 nationally allowing 221.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #44 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Duke converts 44.4% of third downs (#64 nationally) versus Miami's 72.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Duke is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Miami sits at -2.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Duke on the winning side of an even split.
Miami — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Duke ranks #81 nationally allowing 204.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #29 run defense.
2Contain Nate Sheppard
Duke's top producer this season: 227 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Miami has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Miami converts 72.7% of third downs (#5 nationally) versus Duke's 44.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Miami is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Duke sits at +0.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Miami on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Walker EgetDUKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 131
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.0
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 92.3
Leading Rusher
Nate SheppardDUKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 227
- Carries
- 35
- Yards / Carry
- 6.5
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 47
Primary Receiver
Jonah BurtonDUKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 38
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 12.7
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Nick Morris Jr.DUKE · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MIA by 15.0
Baseline MIA -15.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
MIA QB
MIA Top 25 level · DUKE Below average
DUKE passing vs MIA coverage
| 131.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 221.0 |
| 46.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 52.4% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.4% |
| -0.171 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.196 |
DUKE rushing vs MIA run defense
| 250.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 78.0 |
| 5.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 25.0% |
| 18.4% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 2 |
| 0.106 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.103 |
MIA passing vs DUKE coverage
| 204.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 428.0 |
| 6.8 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 85.7% |
| 56.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 12.2 |
| 10.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.113 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.072 |
Efficiency & situational
| 44.4% | Third-down conversion | 72.7% |
| 381.0 | Total yards / game | 549.0 |
| 258.0 | Yards allowed / game | 299.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.