Week 2 · Final
26 – 35
Vegas Line
Vanderbilt -20.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
VAN -17.0
VAN 93.2% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: DEL
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.9 pts toward VAN on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- VAN -1.4
- VAN: 4 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent +1.6 pts.
Delaware — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Vanderbilt ranks #33 nationally allowing 62.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #32 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Delaware converts 46.2% of third downs (#60 nationally) versus Vanderbilt's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Delaware is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Vanderbilt sits at +0.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Delaware on the winning side of an even split.
Vanderbilt — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Delaware ranks #73 nationally allowing 196.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #20 run defense.
2Contain Nakeem Powell
Delaware's top producer this season: 35 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Vanderbilt has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Vanderbilt converts 33.3% of third downs (#106 nationally) versus Delaware's 46.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Vanderbilt is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Delaware sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Vanderbilt on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Nick MinicucciDEL · QB
- Passing Yds
- 330
- Completion %
- 55.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 145.3
Leading Rusher
Nakeem PowellDEL · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 35
- Carries
- 5
- Yards / Carry
- 7.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Primary Receiver
Kaderris RobertsDEL · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 40.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Defensive Leader
Noah JeffersonDEL · S
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
VAN by 17.0
Baseline VAN -17.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
VAN QB
VAN FBS average · DEL Below average
DEL passing vs VAN coverage
| 435.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 116.0 |
| 54.5% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.1% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 23.8% |
| 0.791 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.051 |
DEL rushing vs VAN run defense
| 112.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 62.0 |
| 3.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.5 |
| 2.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.1% |
| 33.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.229 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.209 |
VAN passing vs DEL coverage
| 196.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 209.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.0% |
| 46.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 6.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.135 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.341 |
Efficiency & situational
| 46.2% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 547.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 244.0 | Yards allowed / game | 178.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.