Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
USF -13.0
USF 88.1% win · O/U 44.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- USF -9.0
- USF: 2 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Brian Hartline — 2021–2025 archive weighted 48%, incoming portal talent −2.3 pts.
Delaware State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
South Florida ranks #116 nationally allowing 301.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #45 run defense.
2Contain Jason Collins Jr.
South Florida's top producer this season: 59 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Delaware State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Delaware State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; South Florida sits at +3.
South Florida — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
South Florida is +3 in turnover margin (3 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Delaware State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
South Florida averages 208.0 total yards per game (#127 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Michael Van Buren Jr.USF · QB
- Passing Yds
- 100
- Completion %
- 61.1%
- Yards / Attempt
- 5.6
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 107.8
Leading Rusher
Jason Collins Jr.USF · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 59
- Carries
- 17
- Yards / Carry
- 3.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 12
Primary Receiver
Arhmad BranchUSF · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 47
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 9.4
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 14
Defensive Leader
Rodney HillUSF · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
USF by 13.0
Baseline USF -13.0
Simulated Total
44.6
Baseline 44.6
Unit Edge
USF QB
USF FBS average · DEL Below average
DEL passing vs USF coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 301.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 62.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.214 |
DEL rushing vs USF run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 80.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 25.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.072 |
USF passing vs DEL coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 100.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 61.1% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 5.6 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.156 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 208.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 381.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.