Week 1 · Final
14 – 13
Vegas Line
Georgia Tech -6.5
Total 53.5
Model Projection
GT -3.0
GT 61.3% win · O/U 53.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: COLO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.0 pts toward COLO on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- GT -0.9
- GT: 3 portal additions / 4 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 78%, incoming portal talent +0.2 pts.
- COLO: 9 portal additions / 7 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 49%, incoming portal talent +0.3 pts.
Colorado — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Georgia Tech ranks #112 nationally allowing 183.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #38 pass defense.
2Contain Justice Haynes
Georgia Tech's top producer this season: 64 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Colorado has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Colorado converts 41.2% of third downs (#78 nationally) versus Georgia Tech's 38.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Colorado is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia Tech sits at -1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts Colorado on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia Tech — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Colorado ranks #97 nationally allowing 237.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #23 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Georgia Tech converts 38.5% of third downs (#88 nationally) versus Colorado's 41.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Georgia Tech is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Colorado sits at +1.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 53.5. Anything above 27 points puts Georgia Tech on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Alberto MendozaGT · QB
- Passing Yds
- 237
- Completion %
- 73.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.3
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 160.5
Leading Rusher
Justice HaynesGT · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 64
- Carries
- 19
- Yards / Carry
- 3.4
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 11
Primary Receiver
Jordan AllenGT · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 113
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 14.1
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 30
Defensive Leader
Kyle EffordGT · LB
- Tackles
- 13
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
GT by 3.0
Baseline GT -3.0
Simulated Total
53.5
Baseline 53.5
Unit Edge
GT QB
GT FBS average · COLO FBS average
COLO passing vs GT coverage
| 124.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 124.0 |
| 51.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.6 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.9% |
| 1.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.7% |
| 0.071 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.071 |
COLO rushing vs GT run defense
| 183.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 183.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.7 |
| 2.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 10.9% |
| 10.9% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.017 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.017 |
GT passing vs COLO coverage
| 237.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 237.0 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.8% |
| 70.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 12.5% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.428 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.428 |
Efficiency & situational
| 41.2% | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 307.0 | Total yards / game | 288.0 |
| 288.0 | Yards allowed / game | 307.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.