Week 2 · Final
10 – 13
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CMU -12.5
CMU 86.9% win · O/U 47.1
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- CMU -8.3
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Colgate — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Central Michigan ranks #118 nationally allowing 205.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #57 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Colgate is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Central Michigan sits at -2.
Central Michigan — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Central Michigan is -2 in turnover margin (0 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Colgate sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Central Michigan averages 149.0 total yards per game (#133 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CMU by 12.3
Baseline CMU -12.5
Simulated Total
47.1
Baseline 47.1
Unit Edge
CMU QB
CMU Below average · COLG Below average
COLG passing vs CMU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 159.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.4 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 68.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.0% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.162 |
COLG rushing vs CMU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 205.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.7 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 3.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 3 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.440 |
CMU passing vs COLG coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 30.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 43.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 1.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.383 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 18.2% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 149.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 364.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.