Week 1 · Final
24 – 31
Vegas Line
West Virginia -21
Total 54.5
Model Projection
WVU -17.5
WVU 93.7% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: CCU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.4 pts toward WVU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CCU -0.4
- CCU: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Ryan Beard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Coastal Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
West Virginia ranks #132 nationally allowing 373.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #27 run defense.
2Contain Cam Cook
West Virginia's top producer this season: 142 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Coastal Carolina has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Coastal Carolina converts 20.0% of third downs (#125 nationally) versus West Virginia's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Coastal Carolina is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; West Virginia sits at +1.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Coastal Carolina on the winning side of an even split.
West Virginia — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Coastal Carolina ranks #132 nationally allowing 281.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #45 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
West Virginia converts 50.0% of third downs (#54 nationally) versus Coastal Carolina's 20.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
West Virginia is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Coastal Carolina sits at -1.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts West Virginia on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Michael Hawkins Jr.WVU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 132
- Completion %
- 78.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.4
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 181.3
Leading Rusher
Cam CookWVU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 142
- Carries
- 30
- Yards / Carry
- 4.7
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 72
Primary Receiver
Armoni WeaverWVU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 49.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 49
Defensive Leader
Kamari WilsonWVU · S
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WVU by 17.5
Baseline WVU -17.5
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
WVU QB
WVU FBS average · CCU FBS average
CCU passing vs WVU coverage
| 373.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 373.0 |
| 56.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 10.1 |
| 10.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 56.8% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.5% |
| 0.457 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.457 |
CCU rushing vs WVU run defense
| 52.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 52.0 |
| 1.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.9 |
| 1.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 32.0% |
| 32.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 9 |
| -0.214 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.214 |
WVU passing vs CCU coverage
| 132.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 132.0 |
| 9.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 78.6% |
| 78.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.4 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.636 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.636 |
Efficiency & situational
| 20.0% | Third-down conversion | 50.0% |
| 425.0 | Total yards / game | 413.0 |
| 413.0 | Yards allowed / game | 425.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.