Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
CCU -2.5
CCU 59.5% win · O/U 53.9
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +4.2 pts toward CCU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- CCU -0.8
- CCU: 0 portal additions / 0 departures, first year under Ryan Beard — 2021–2025 archive weighted 70%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Coastal Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Delaware ranks #73 nationally allowing 196.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #20 run defense.
2Contain Nakeem Powell
Delaware's top producer this season: 35 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Coastal Carolina has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Coastal Carolina converts 20.0% of third downs (#125 nationally) versus Delaware's 46.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Coastal Carolina is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Delaware sits at +1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Coastal Carolina averages 425.0 total yards per game (#59 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Delaware — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Coastal Carolina ranks #132 nationally allowing 281.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #45 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Delaware converts 46.2% of third downs (#60 nationally) versus Coastal Carolina's 20.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Delaware is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Coastal Carolina sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Delaware averages 547.0 total yards per game (#24 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Nick MinicucciDEL · QB
- Passing Yds
- 330
- Completion %
- 55.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 145.3
Leading Rusher
Nakeem PowellDEL · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 35
- Carries
- 5
- Yards / Carry
- 7.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Primary Receiver
Kaderris RobertsDEL · RB
- Receiving Yds
- 80
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 40.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 75
Defensive Leader
Noah JeffersonDEL · S
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
CCU by 2.5
Baseline CCU -2.5
Simulated Total
53.9
Baseline 53.9
Unit Edge
CCU QB
DEL Below average · CCU FBS average
CCU passing vs DEL coverage
| 373.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 196.0 |
| 56.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.4 |
| 10.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 46.7% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.7% |
| 0.457 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.135 |
CCU rushing vs DEL run defense
| 52.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 48.0 |
| 1.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.9 |
| 1.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.6% |
| 32.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| -0.214 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.268 |
DEL passing vs CCU coverage
| 132.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 435.0 |
| 9.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 54.5% |
| 78.6% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.636 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.791 |
Efficiency & situational
| 20.0% | Third-down conversion | 46.2% |
| 425.0 | Total yards / game | 547.0 |
| 413.0 | Yards allowed / game | 244.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.