Week 1 · Final
0 – 31
Vegas Line
Georgia Southern -28.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
GASO -25.0
GASO 97.9% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: CHSO
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- GASO -6.8
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Charleston Southern — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Georgia Southern ranks #26 nationally allowing 109.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #5 run defense.
2Contain Jamarian Samuel
Georgia Southern's top producer this season: 92 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Charleston Southern has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Charleston Southern is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Georgia Southern sits at +1.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Charleston Southern on the winning side of an even split.
Georgia Southern — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Georgia Southern is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Charleston Southern sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Georgia Southern on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Max JohnsonGASO · QB
- Passing Yds
- 562
- Completion %
- 71.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.2
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 140.8
Leading Rusher
Jamarian SamuelGASO · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 92
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 11.5
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Ashton HollinsGASO · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 212
- Receptions
- 16
- Yards / Catch
- 13.3
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 57
Defensive Leader
Rashon Myles Jr.GASO · LB
- Tackles
- 12
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 2.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
GASO by 25.0
Baseline GASO -25.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
GASO QB
GASO FBS average · CHSO Below average
CHSO passing vs GASO coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 109.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.8 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 31.0% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 20.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.380 |
CHSO rushing vs GASO run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 8.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 0.3 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 29.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 13 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.344 |
GASO passing vs CHSO coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 351.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.2% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.449 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 38.5% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 513.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 117.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.