Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
FLA -15.5
FLA 91.4% win · O/U 57.3
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- FLA -11.4
- FLA: 8 portal additions / 9 departures, first year under Jon Sumrall — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −2.1 pts.
Campbell — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Florida ranks #112 nationally allowing 276.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #75 run defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Campbell is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida sits at +2.
Florida — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Florida is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Campbell sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Florida averages 624.0 total yards per game (#14 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
FLA by 15.4
Baseline FLA -15.5
Simulated Total
57.3
Baseline 57.3
Unit Edge
FLA QB
FLA Top 25 level · CAM Below average
CAM passing vs FLA coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 276.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.2 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 64.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.8% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.045 |
CAM rushing vs FLA run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 120.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 5.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.353 |
FLA passing vs CAM coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 343.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 76.9% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 13.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.607 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 624.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 396.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.