Week 2 · Final
20 – 30
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
SJSU -13.0
SJSU 87.8% win · O/U 51.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- SJSU -8.8
- SJSU: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.0 pts.
Cal Poly — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
San José State ranks #104 nationally allowing 257.5 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #83 run defense.
2Contain Jabari Bates
San José State's top producer this season: 156 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Cal Poly has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Cal Poly is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; San José State sits at +0.
San José State — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
San José State is +0 in turnover margin (2 forced, 2 lost) across 2 recorded games; Cal Poly sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
San José State averages 394.5 total yards per game (#78 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Luke WeaverSJSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 550
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 7.7
- TD : INT
- 5 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 5.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 147.5
Leading Rusher
Jabari BatesSJSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 156
- Carries
- 31
- Yards / Carry
- 5.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 13
Primary Receiver
Cooper HochSJSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 139
- Receptions
- 7
- Yards / Catch
- 19.9
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Naseri DanielsonSJSU · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 9
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
SJSU by 12.8
Baseline SJSU -13.0
Simulated Total
51.6
Baseline 51.6
Unit Edge
SJSU QB
SJSU Below average · CP Below average
CP passing vs SJSU coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 257.5 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 68.4% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.5% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.237 |
CP rushing vs SJSU run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 135.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.7% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.155 |
SJSU passing vs CP coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 275.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 60.3% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.5 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.416 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 37.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 394.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 393.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.