Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
BYU -6.0
BYU 71.9% win · O/U 51.6
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.7 pts toward BYU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BYU -4.9
- CSU: 0 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Jim Mora — 2021–2025 archive weighted 67%, incoming portal talent −0.8 pts.
- BYU: 3 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 90%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
BYU — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Colorado State ranks #88 nationally allowing 143.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #42 pass defense.
2Contain Jayden Brown
Colorado State's top producer this season: 57 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing BYU has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
BYU converts 81.8% of third downs (#2 nationally) versus Colorado State's 46.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
BYU is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Colorado State sits at +4.
5Move the ball efficiently
BYU averages 521.0 total yards per game (#34 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Colorado State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
BYU ranks #46 nationally allowing 135.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #21 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Colorado State converts 46.7% of third downs (#56 nationally) versus BYU's 81.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Colorado State is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; BYU sits at +4.
4Move the ball efficiently
Colorado State averages 396.0 total yards per game (#73 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Hauss HejnyCSU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 214
- Completion %
- 69.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.5
- TD : INT
- 5 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 174.2
Leading Rusher
Jayden BrownCSU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 57
- Carries
- 8
- Yards / Carry
- 7.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 37
Primary Receiver
Reginald Vick JrCSU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 75
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 12.5
- Receiving TD
- 3
- Long
- 57
Defensive Leader
Jaseim MitchellCSU · LB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BYU by 6.1
Baseline BYU -6.0
Simulated Total
51.6
Baseline 51.6
Unit Edge
BYU QB
CSU FBS average · BYU FBS average
BYU passing vs CSU coverage
| 213.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 130.0 |
| 77.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.8 |
| 9.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.5% |
| 0.599 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.109 |
BYU rushing vs CSU run defense
| 308.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 143.0 |
| 6.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.2 |
| 4.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.626 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.083 |
CSU passing vs BYU coverage
| 135.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 242.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 70.6% |
| 48.4% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.1 |
| 3.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| -0.277 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.537 |
Efficiency & situational
| 81.8% | Third-down conversion | 46.7% |
| 521.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 184.0 | Yards allowed / game | 273.0 |
| +4 | Turnover margin | +4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.