Week 2 · Final
20 – 33
Vegas Line
Florida International -10.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
FIU -7.0
FIU 74.6% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: BUF
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.2 pts toward FIU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BUF -1.6
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Buffalo — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Florida International ranks #69 nationally allowing 108.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #22 pass defense.
2Contain J.J. Kohl
Florida International's top producer this season: 31 rushing yards (QB). Their production line is the first thing Buffalo has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Buffalo converts 47.6% of third downs (#55 nationally) versus Florida International's 29.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Buffalo is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Florida International sits at -3.
5Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Buffalo on the winning side of an even split.
Florida International — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Buffalo ranks #80 nationally allowing 204.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #40 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Florida International converts 29.4% of third downs (#113 nationally) versus Buffalo's 47.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Florida International is -3 in turnover margin (0 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Buffalo sits at +0.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Florida International on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 301
- Completion %
- 62.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.0
- TD : INT
- 1 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 0.50:1
- Passer Rating
- 111.2
Leading Rusher
J.J. KohlFIU · QB
- Rushing Yds
- 31
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 5.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 15
Primary Receiver
Maguire AndersonFIU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 87
- Receptions
- 8
- Yards / Catch
- 10.9
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 20
Defensive Leader
Deandre BoykinsFIU · DB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
FIU by 7.0
Baseline FIU -7.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
FIU QB
FIU Below average · BUF Below average
BUF passing vs FIU coverage
| 189.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 100.0 |
| 55.3% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.6 |
| 4.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 61.1% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.6% |
| 0.197 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.156 |
BUF rushing vs FIU run defense
| 151.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 108.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.8 |
| 3.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 24.3% |
| 18.2% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.025 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.099 |
FIU passing vs BUF coverage
| 204.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 301.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 62.0% |
| 46.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.0 |
| 7.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.50:1 |
| 0.096 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.214 |
Efficiency & situational
| 47.6% | Third-down conversion | 29.4% |
| 340.0 | Total yards / game | 381.0 |
| 276.0 | Yards allowed / game | 208.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.