Vegas Line
Army -37.5
Total 51.5
Model Projection
ARMY -34.0
ARMY 99.5% win · O/U 51.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: BRY
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- ARMY -11.4
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Bryant — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Army ranks #36 nationally allowing 67.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #19 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Bryant is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Army sits at +0.
3Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Bryant on the winning side of an even split.
Army — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Army is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Bryant sits at +0.
2Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 51.5. Anything above 26 points puts Army on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ARMY by 34.0
Baseline ARMY -34.0
Simulated Total
51.5
Baseline 51.5
Unit Edge
ARMY QB
ARMY Below average · BRY Below average
BRY passing vs ARMY coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 98.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.3 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 47.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.124 |
BRY rushing vs ARMY run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.2 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.068 |
ARMY passing vs BRY coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 79.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 53.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.1 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | -0.086 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 648.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 165.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.