Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ISU -10.0
ISU 82.8% win · O/U 48.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +10.7 pts toward ISU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BGSU -4.5
- ISU: 1 portal additions / 16 departures, first year under Jimmy Rogers — 2021–2025 archive weighted 16%, incoming portal talent −8.0 pts.
Bowling Green — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Iowa State ranks #48 nationally allowing 142.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #37 run defense.
2Contain Aiden Flora
Iowa State's top producer this season: 45 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Bowling Green has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Bowling Green converts 46.2% of third downs (#59 nationally) versus Iowa State's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Bowling Green is -1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Iowa State sits at +2.
5Move the ball efficiently
Bowling Green averages 366.0 total yards per game (#92 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Iowa State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Bowling Green ranks #127 nationally allowing 258.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #82 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Iowa State converts 40.0% of third downs (#80 nationally) versus Bowling Green's 46.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Iowa State is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Bowling Green sits at -1.
4Move the ball efficiently
Iowa State averages 303.0 total yards per game (#112 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Jaylen RaynorISU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 184
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.5
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 187.9
Leading Rusher
Aiden FloraISU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 45
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 6.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 17
Primary Receiver
Dominic OverbyISU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 85
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 42.5
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 45
Defensive Leader
Sullivan SchlimgenISU · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 1.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ISU by 10.2
Baseline ISU -10.0
Simulated Total
48.4
Baseline 48.4
Unit Edge
ISU QB
ISU FBS average · BGSU FBS average
BGSU passing vs ISU coverage
| 262.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 142.0 |
| 80.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 8.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 77.3% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 27.3% |
| 0.565 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.025 |
BGSU rushing vs ISU run defense
| 104.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 67.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.5 |
| 2.3 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 14.3% |
| 25.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 12 |
| -0.410 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.092 |
ISU passing vs BGSU coverage
| 206.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 195.0 |
| 8.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 52.9% |
| 66.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.5 |
| 4.2% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 0.369 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.324 |
Efficiency & situational
| 46.2% | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 366.0 | Total yards / game | 303.0 |
| 464.0 | Yards allowed / game | 209.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.