Week 1 · Final
27 – 34
Vegas Line
Oregon -24.5
Total 52.5
Model Projection
ORE -21.0
ORE 96.2% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: BOIS
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.4 pts toward ORE on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ORE -0.1
- ORE: 8 portal additions / 15 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −4.5 pts.
- BOIS: 0 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 94%, incoming portal talent −1.5 pts.
Boise State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oregon ranks #65 nationally allowing 181.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #56 run defense.
2Contain Jordon Davison
Oregon's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Boise State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Boise State converts 26.7% of third downs (#117 nationally) versus Oregon's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Boise State is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon sits at -1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Boise State on the winning side of an even split.
Oregon — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Boise State ranks #134 nationally allowing 378.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #72 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Oregon converts 33.3% of third downs (#103 nationally) versus Boise State's 26.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Oregon is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Boise State sits at +1.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Oregon on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dante MooreORE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 378
- Completion %
- 75.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.2
Leading Rusher
Jordon DavisonORE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 7.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Primary Receiver
Jeremiah McClellanORE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 150
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Koi PerichORE · DB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ORE by 21.0
Baseline ORE -21.0
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
ORE QB
ORE Above average · BOIS FBS average
BOIS passing vs ORE coverage
| 181.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 181.0 |
| 51.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 51.7% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 10.3% |
| 0.291 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.291 |
BOIS rushing vs ORE run defense
| 93.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 93.0 |
| 2.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.6 |
| 2.9 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 12.1% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| -0.024 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.024 |
ORE passing vs BOIS coverage
| 378.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 378.0 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 73.7% |
| 73.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.9 |
| 2.6% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.349 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.349 |
Efficiency & situational
| 26.7% | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 274.0 | Total yards / game | 497.0 |
| 497.0 | Yards allowed / game | 274.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.